Mt. Gox Delayed Again, But Close To Final Release

Mr. Nobuaki Kobayashi, Attorney-at-law and Rehabilitation Trustee of Mt. Gox, announced today that he obtained the approval of Tokyo District Court last Friday to extend the submission deadline for the rehabilitation plan by 3 months to July 1, 2020.

It seems that the long-term overhang has been removed. However, it is worth noticing that the deadline is delayed only by 3 months, compared to 6 months upon the previous two delays, which implies the trustee is serious this time. It is also also noteworthy that the trustee said he could start the rehabilitation process even if disputed claims were unresolved. We believe the release of more than 140,000 BTC is highly likely after July 1.

3 months do not seem enough for a major rally, especially when the financial markets are still in turmoil. The delay itself could become a non-event in the short-term, and Bitcoin will have to respond to further news on all kinds of macro and micro factors. Range trading seems a likely scenario, while we don’t expect another low under $4,000 for the time being. The huge liquidity injected into the market is certainly a good catalyst to Bitcoin in the longer term.

Meanwhile, we are also curious about miners’ choices. Given the current price, most of the older machine models won’t survive the production halving. Will they try to find cheaper hydroelectricity? Will they go more aggressive on hedging through short selling? These decisions will decide whether the price could be capped in the short-term, and we will provide more analysis in the coming days.